IBM's 5 Year Plan →

IBM is doing a poor job of caveating their statements here. If they don't intend to caveat them, then I'm going to call BS to some degree. IBM's 5 year plan outlines 5 ways in which technology will progress... here's why I say they're embellishing:

  1. "The classroom will learn you." Essentially a smarter classroom with a per-child custom tailored education. This will exist on some level, likely a beta trial at a few schools. In reality schools are either under funded or misappropriate their funds so badly that there is little to no hope for funding the massive infrastructure build-out that would be required to host this. Even schools in middle to upper-middle class areas aren't in a position to make this happen (and certainly won't be in 5 years).
  2. "Buying local will beat online." I'm not sure "beat" is a great word to use, but I think there will be a new retail wave that comes soon thanks to a blend of technology and the irreplaceable human connection. Things like iBeacon are going to play a major role here. You'll see a revitalization for any store that embraces this next generation of shopping experience, but "beating" online retail implies a monetary savings to customers and I just don't see it. Side note: until we're all wearing Google Glass, augmented reality is a pretty gimmicky toy. Not that it won't be a key technology one day, but I'm not holding my breath on the next 5 years.
  3. "Doctors will use your DNA to keep you well." You will likely see this in high dollar medical situations, but your average American's day-to-day checkup costs certainly won't cover it.
  4. "A digital guardian will protect you online." The best protection is to be smart. With that being said, if someone wants your information, they can get your information. Nothing is unhackable. I hope this time around there is more care put into the software than the days of old where virus protection brought even a super computer to its knees.
  5. "The city will help you live in it." The idea of sentient cities is an interesting one, but with some major issues, two primary ones come to mind. Privacy is the first, infrastructure is the second. To be sentient, the city must know a remarkable amount of information about you, people aren't going to like that. Furthermore, people definitely aren't going to approve the budgets that propose buying the (extremely expensive) infrastructure to make it possible. The private sector will do what they can here, but they cannot put physical objects in public space, so they're limited to satellites, your cell phone, your mobile technology, etc. Oh yeah, did I mention privacy?

IBM is doing a job of getting a lot of clicks and eyes on this, as they do every year. I genuinely believe they do it to inspire technology growth and not for the click counts that a lot of tech blogging has been reduced to these days. Here's to the next 5 years.

Federal Ruling on NSA Spying: Unconstitutional

ArsTechnica: Federal judge finds NSA spying unconstitutional

Not sure there are too many people that would disagree with the ruling. It'll be interesting to see what happens to Edward Snowden. The law agrees that what he exposed was in fact illegal, however how he exposed said information is also illegal. With that being said, it seems unlikely it could have been exposed any other way (realistically, that is). 

Follow-Up On Pragmatic's Automation Discussion

Pragmatic Show Episode 3

The discussion on automation in the latest episode of Pragmatic was a great one. It touched on a lot of key value to be had in the smart home endeavor. Below are a few points from the show and my corresponding thoughts that should serve more as logical extensions rather than contradictions, though I do not speak on their behalf:

  • Pragmatic: The true value is in automation, remote control is secondary.
  • Mike: Largely I agree, 2 main considerations.
    1. The automation side is surprisingly underdeveloped right now. Companies like Smart Things are making progress, but the fact remains that the market isn't there yet. Automated lights will still turn off if you're still watching TV or reading, automated blinds will open when you get out of the shower before you're dressed, and motion sensors get tripped up by passing objects or glares that you don't want sensed. Once this stuff is perfected, it'll take off a lot faster. The user experience is currently unacceptable for anyone besides early adopters and nerds.
    2. Remote control doesn't have nearly as frequent of a use case in general, of course there are exceptions. However, a fair number of the use cases are arguably of higher importance. Consider forgetting to close your garage door when you leave for work - you never remember if you closed it or not so you either gamble, or turn back. The value in remote "control" is arguably more in the remote monitoring then being able to react. To merge these 2 points, you'd love to see automation take over here and sense that no one is home, none of the occupants' phones are detected to be inside the home, therefore the home takes action - locks doors, closes the garage door, adjusts the heat, lights off (except at sunset when the outdoor lights turn on), etc. I could discuss this at length, we'll leave it here for now.
  • Pragmatic: There is an associated cost with spending your own time on installing, setting up, and maintaining a smart home. The "cost" and/or "savings" is not necessarily monetary and can be hard to measure.
  • Mike: There is a circular problem here. The setup cost and technical knowledge required prevents it from being mainstream, the fact that it isn't mainstream prevents a lot of companies from investing in it, the lack of participation in the market prevents costs from dropping due to competition. I don't believe that the disruption in this market has happened yet, and by definition, disruption is what breaks that cycle. The Nest Thermostat and Protect are the closest we've gotten to that and I think the disruptive event is right around the corner. That being said, the iPhone of home automation hasn't shown its pretty little face. Disclaimer: I own a Nest Thermostat and could not love it more. Nest Protect is very high on my list of things to be purchased as well.

There will be more thoughts on this in future posts. I find this market to be full of examples of people and products that have much better selling points and features on the box than they have practical applications in improving one's life.

Seriously, Don't Do This: Web Design Edition

There are numerous things frequently found online that are inhumane, evil, wrong, and just plain annoying. Here are a few that come to mind. 

  • Gallery views of trivial lists of trivial things. I don't want to wait 8 seconds for a mediocre "revelation" to load 25 times. If you use a gallery, your content should be nothing short of revolutionary. 
  • Popovers where I can't see your page without clicking 'Close' first. See: Tab Closed; Didn't Read.
  • Multipage articles. Unless it is John Siracusa's epic saga outlining every detail of Mavericks, there is no reason the content should span more than one page.
  • Auto-play content. Partial redemption if it is muted by default, but not much. If your site auto-plays audio or video then you may as well just have your domain forward to your MySpace page. Make sure to leave your pager number on the Contact page.
  • Persistent prompts that ask you to take a survey, if you want to live chat, or anything similar. If I scrolled down and didn't click on your abomination, then there is a very good reason.
  • Mouse-over ads. Going to a website shouldn't be a tedious minefield while scrolling down hoping to avoid the double underlined words that popup ads when your mouse touches them. 

Any suggestions? I wouldn't be surprised if this became a regular segment.