There is no iWatch [Updated]

Make no mistake, Apple has evaluated, designed, and strongly considered variations of a smart watch, but the tech media is blowing up with absolute certainty that "the iWatch" will be released. It won't. The is no iWatch. I'm not saying it will never be released, but not in 2014, and likely not for at least a handful of years after that, if ever.

There have been compelling discussions on this. One by Craig Hockenberry at Furbo, and another by Ben Bajarin at Techpinions - both are excellent reads. Craig's highlights a multitude of serious concerns for entering the wearable space and poses the quintessential question for Apple:

What problems can a wearable device solve?

That is how Apple is looking at this problem, and there are few, if any, compelling arguments for why Apple should enter the market. The reasons not to enter the market are overwhelming, here are some key issues.

1. They're competing with highly skilled, tremendously well designed, and thoroughly entrenched parties for the wrist real estate.

2. Entering a market where the measure of style and quality is not even remotely within reach in the sub-$1000 market is problematic. Apple cannot release a watch that expensive for several reasons, namely because tech is outdated so fast and people will be expected to replace this device relatively frequently (every iPhone or two, even three). Traditional watches last forever.

3. Making a watch is very different from providing a solution that classifies as wearable technology.

4. The technology simply doesn't exist to make a beautiful design, long battery life, nice screen, and compelling fitness features. The Moto360 is attractive, but far too thick, no word on battery life, no word on price, and doesn't have any fitness features.

Apple has always been about cultivating a user experience that is vastly aided by a carefully nurtured ecosystem. That is a major reason why platform lock-in is so common. The ecosystem is so great, you want to use it. Once you have invested in it, it's really tough to leave unless you want to forfeit your investment.

To this end, Ben highlights a far more likely scenario to explain all of the Healthbook features seen in the iOS 8 leaks.

In short, what if Apple is preparing to enable and empower an ecosystem of wearables, made by third parties, but with unique and proprietary hooks to the iPhone. Healthbook would simply serve as a mechanism to work with third party hardware, along with specific APIs, and display key data for the consumer. This makes the most sense to me. Apple would encourage and enable third party hardware companies to build value around the iPhone and make the platform stronger. 

That doesn't just sound like Apple, it screams Apple. It oozes of Apple. There is no one-size-fits-all solution to wearable tech. Every person has a different daily routine, different activities, and different health concerns. It is impossible for any one device to cover all of these with today's technology.

The iPhone works because the overlap in usage is so large for smartphone users that the iPhone works, in one way or another, for millions of people (for those where it doesn't work, there are other platforms). I don't see a similar market opportunity for wearables as it sits today.

I fully expect Apple to accelerate and enable technology growth in this space to make things interesting, I just don't think they'll be releasing an iWatch to make that happen.

UPDATE: Given some of the feedback, I thought it is worth clarifying my position on the iWatch. I would love for an iWatch to be a real thing. After owning and liking some things about the Pebble, I'm confident I will be wearing a smart watch in the future, and who better than Apple to make it? That being said, this article outlines what I consider to be the overwhelmingly convincing case as to why that isn't happening in the short term. I sincerely hope to be wrong.

UPDATE (03/17/15): Apple did the primary thing I suspected they would not do – they are taking on the high end watch market. I still believe that both types of products can coexist, but I didn't see this one coming. I was partially right saying that there wouldn't be a watch in 2014, there was a more finished product than I expected, but not a product for sale. That being said, I still think they are a full year ahead of where I would have expected them to be at the time (much like the retina iPad Mini in 2013).

Hangouts Can't Handle 6000 People for Moto360 Event [Update: Live on YouTube]

UPDATE

After giving on on Google Hangouts it seems, they are now live on YouTube.

Everyone I've talked to trying to sign into the Moto360 event on Google Hangouts has been met with timeouts and errors, though the participants list suggests some people are able to log in. I've tried on 3 devices - iPhone, iPad, and a Windows PC with no luck. I've also tried 2 wifi networks and a strong LTE connection on both the iPad and iPhone - no luck.

With an audience this large, most are echoing the question of why they didn't just use a live YouTube stream.

A link to the event can be found here, but for now it doesn't seem it will do you any good.

Reports of Apple Testing New Screen Sizes... Yawn →

If we reported on every screen size, material, product, and mold shape that Apple has tried, it would be like drinking from a fire hose. I'm not saying new screen sizes won't appear in new devices eventually, but let's be realistic.

• iPad "Pro" - Nope*.
• Larger iPhone - likely in the next 2 years. I would expect an announcement related to vector-izing graphics in the OS to be part of this.
• Smart "Watch" - I don't see what Apple has to gain here. I think Gruber's idea of a new iPod with a watch strap is more likely, but even that isn't something I'd bet on. Once battery technology improves, I think this could change. Right now the batteries needed are far too large for a device worthy of the Apple brand.

*The time frame on the "nope" projection is 2-3 years. Not happening.

Unexpected Consequence of Wearing a Pebble Smart Watch

I backed the Pebble Kickstarter project on day 3 and was anxious for all 471 days of my wait. There are pros and cons with it, I find myself wearing it for a month or so, then not for the next 3 weeks. Torn in between the two worlds. Plenty of reviews have been written, so I'll skip that.

I found one shocking side effect of wearing the watch that I had not expected, and it remains one of the largest sticking points for me. It isn't the Pebble's fault though.

Volumes have been written about how nice it is to leave your phone in your pocket. While this is true, it does mean you are potentially looking at your watch as many times as you were looking at your phone. There is a social understanding (to some degree) that looking at your phone is accepted. Yes, it is rude when you're with people, but a quick check here and there is usually acceptable (highly dependent on the situation and company of course).

When you're with those people and checking your watch, you look like you're counting the minutes until they're done talking or until you can leave. It comes across as immeasurably rude, and I've gotten the reactions to support that. I find myself having to awkwardly explain that I'm not looking at the time, but rather a push alert of some kind. If you're getting push alerts as often as me, you really just appear to be rude, impatient, and selfish should you chose to check your watch each time. Most of us don't look at every alert right when it comes in, but when your wrist buzzes it quickly becomes habit to glance quickly.

As with any technology, it is the responsibility of the user to exercise common courtesy and logic. This isn't a slam on the Pebble. It is, however, a side effect I did not consider beforehand.